Trying times

When so many things are changing at a frenetic pace as they are now, it’s a fool’s errand to predict far into the future. Cynefin framework (developed by Dave Snowden, Cynefin being the Welsh word for habitat) makes the distinction between complicated situations and complex situations. The big difference is that in the complex domain cause and effect can only be deduced in retrospect. The times we find ourselves in now can clearly be characterized as complex.

As an entrepreneur, you often work with a dream or a vision for the future. It’s tempting to translate your vision into a multiyear masterplan. A roadmap, how to step by step get to your goal. Tempting, because it gives a sense of control. But in times where cause and effect can’t be deduced beforehand, this is foolish. It will be hopelessly outdated in a few weeks.

The way forward is to firstly be present to what your options are in the moment. You won’t know with certainty which option will turn out the best. Secondly, you’ll need to view them as experiments. Picking experiments that will test the water without being disastrous when they fail. And thirdly, sensing which of the options/experiments is the best available one to improve the situation to bring the future forward. Pick that one and go with it as best your can.

This is hard when you have the predisposition to first figure everything out before starting. Trying something that could fail feels like a recipe for wasting time. “Better to analyze a bit longer.”

But because none of the options available will give you the certainty you want, this will leave you stuck waiting. And in waiting ironically doing what you feared: wasting time. The way forward is to recognize that your preferred method isn’t applicable here. You’ll have to accept inefficiency and see that time “wasted” isn’t actually wasted because it is part of the way.

Listen to my interview with Freek van der Pluijm on De Gebakken Peren. Where we talk about how he navigates these times by having a dreams and sensing his options; how he had to say goodbye to the plans and goals he had made, and his drive to work with full focus and attention.

Want to get these short blogs from the interviews in your inbox every other week like a little shot of espresso? Sign up for my Shots of Strategy Newsletter.

Originally published at https://www.studiogeorge.nl on September 18, 2020.